Ecological Niche and Risk Model for Hantavirus in FVG"

Supervisor: Dott.ssa Beraldo Paola

Small mammals play a crucial role in the transmission of diseases due to their population dynamics and behaviour. Among these, wild rodents attract attention for their importance to ecosystem dynamics, as well as their roles as reservoir hosts and vectors of significant pathogens. Small mammals' impact extends beyond zoonotic diseases, as they affect mesocarnivores and the ecosystem's food web. Important prey-predator relationships demonstrate the potential cascading effects on ecosystems in the event of sudden changes or collapses in small mammal populations.

Predicting population fluctuations is challenging, given various abiotic and biotic factors. Climate change is a critical factor with the potential for widespread and enduring consequences. This project, conducted in Friuli Venezia Giulia, an Italian biodiversity hotspot, aims to evaluate the current and future spread of zoonotic diseases and the ecological variables associated with it.

As climate change forces individuals to shift ranges to seek ideal conditions, cross-species disease spread and predation increase. The study will employ live trapping and tissue analysis to identify predictors of disease presence and assesses the impact of climate change on future spread.

The research is part of the larger PNRR project (National Biodiversity Future Centre) aimed at creating a publicly accessible visual model of species distribution and interaction. While acknowledging the uncertainties inherent in small mammal predictions, the study leverages successful models in predicting zoonotic trends, offering valuable insights into landscape-level disease dynamics.

Biography and Contacts

Fabbri Daniele was born in Borgo San Lorenzo (Florence, Italy)
In 2017 he obtained a BSc in Animal Biology and Ecology at the University of Worcester, UK (108/110) and in 2021 he concluded his MSc at the University of Innsbruck, AT (110/110).
As of November 2023, he is undertaking a PhD project at the University of Udine.

Mail - fabbri.daniele@spes.uniud.it
Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/in/daniele-fabbri/
Office Location – Sede D4A, Via Sondrio 2/A (ex basket), LT-66